Why the troop withdrawal timeline is not a good idea Essay Example for Free

Why the troop withdrawal timeline is not a good idea Essay The withdrawal of twenty to forty thousand U.S. troops from Iraq this fall would have a great impact on November elections that are just about to take place. A new Gallup poll just released showed that Bush’s approval rating reached a new low of thirty four percent and that on average his approval rating has been dropping one point a month over the past four years because of this timeline of troop withdrawal. This withdrawal would show progress in the war in Iraq and this will have a great impact in the coming elections on who should take charge to prevent the war. The republicans state that primary goal is to get as many Iraqi soldiers trained as possible so that they can fill in for departing U.S. troops before they can withdraw the U.S. troops from Iraq. The war in Iraq has been a political issue since House and Senate leaders voted on a resolution giving the president license to use force in Iraq just weeks before the 2002 midterm election. Republicans hammered Democrats who opposed the war, as well as their unwillingness to support relaxing labor rules for employees of a newly created Department of Homeland Security. There is a notion if Iraq can forge a truly legitimate state, there is a slight assumption by some that the Iraqis can never match US troops, that training an indigenous force is politically required but operationally suspect. History indicates that counter insurgency operations are more effective if undertaken by local forces and to the degree that the deployment of Iraqi forces reduces American casualties hence it can relieve American domestic political opposition to the war.   Ã‚     Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚   A US decision to withdraw troops under these conditions would leave an intensely corrupt, divided, dysfunctional and authoritarian regime that would affect Iraq immensely and this would be a loss of confidence to the Democrats on handling the war in Iraq. This would impact the people’s opinion on the coming election of voting for those who do not support the war on the Iraqi. The conventional criteria for the withdrawal of US troops thus come down to the capacity of US trained Iraqis to impose, enforce and maintain security. The U.S should ensure that the timeline of troop withdrawal comes when we have competent, skilled, equipped security-making and security-keeping Iraqi force that will be able to stop the war on Iraq.   Ã‚     Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚   In 2006, the American people elected a Democratic Congress to change course and end this war. It’s the whole reason the American people voted for change. Yet, 10 months after the election, we still have the status quo and Congress has still failed to do the people’s will of stopping the war on Iraq. The Republicans add that a small withdrawal of the surge will not be enough to satisfy anti-war Americans to be able to vote for the Democrats but instead will progress the war. Sectarian violence could erupt on a scale never seen before in Iraq if coalition troops leave before Iraqs security forces are ready. Supporters of al Qaeda could develop an international hub of terror from which to threaten the West.   Ã‚     Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚   A rapid withdrawal of all U.S. troops would hurt Americas image and hand al Qaeda and other terror groups a propaganda victory that the United States could not be able to stop the war but withdraw its troop. This is a big blow to the democrats especially at this time of the elections drawing near. Sunni Muslim fighters who support al Qaeda would seek an enclave inside a lawless Iraq along sectarian lines into Shiite, Sunni and Kurdish regions hence a threat to terrorism to the Americans. The republicans want to prevent the central and western Iraq from becoming a Sunni militant state that threatens our interests directly as an international terror hub especially for the Americans. There is an increasing attempt by terrorists to establish a training sanctuary in Iraq when the U.S. troops are with drawn from Iraq because the Iraqi troops are not well train to deal with terrorist and hence require more time to be trained well. No one wants an abrupt withdrawal that produces a civil war, a bloodbath, nor a wider war in an unstable Mideast hence until Iraq troops can be able to govern their own states well without the U.S. troops. The politicians do not want a U.S that is perceived as having been badly defeated in the global war on terror or as an unreliable future ally or coalition partner thus they are all up against the withdrawal of the troops until they are confident that no more civil war can take place. This withdrawal timeline is dangerous especially for the political climate that has deep effect for the democrats to take back the position of power through elections. There is also a great anticipation of an increase of both the U.S troops’ left and Iraqi casualties if Iraq’s neighbors would be drawn into the all out civil war likely if U.S. forces left too quickly. Iran could move in to further strengthen its influence in southern Iraq, Turkey likely would move against the Kurds in the north and Saudi Arabia would be inclined to take action to protect Sunnis in western Iraq. There are also fears that an Iraq left without U.S. support could turn into a center for international terrorism and a proxy battlefield for regional powers like Iran, Syria and Saudi Arabia. All the surrounding countries will think their interests are much better maintained not by directly sending troops but by continuing to send money and weapons to the people fighting that war. I think it would cause a huge vacuum that the enemies of Iraq enemies of the government would take advantage because they U.S. will also withdraw all its support to Iraq.   Ã‚     Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚   The oil sector could also get hit hard, with Iran potentially mining the Persian Gulf and attempting to close the Straits of Hormuz thus putting a stranglehold on oil flow especially to the U.S. who also deeply depend on Iraq for oil. Thus this timeline to withdraw the troop could affect the U.S economy greatly because the oil flow could be greatly affected. Oil prices would go up perhaps changing from current prices of about $60 a barrel to more than $100 a barrel, with consequent rises at the gas pump. Saudi Arabia will not allow increasing Iranian dominance to endanger its regime and oil economy if Iran could strengthen its influence in southern Iraq. The Politicians should use US policy to combat, contain, and roll back the violent activities and destabilizing influence inside Iraq of the Government of Iran.   Ã‚     Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚   Another issues that could be dangerous for U.S interest to withdraw its troop at this time is that the U.S. have spent so much with the deployment of its troop to Iraq and the reconstruction of Iraq after the war. Withdrawing its troop now could be seen as a loss especially to the U.S. economy because they have spent so much money through their troops and in the rebuilding of Iraqi state. If the troops are withdrawn now and the country goes back to war then the U.S would have lost so much resource that they have invested to bring down the Saddam regime to far worse regime. This would be a big blow politically to President Bush for having to fail and the U.S. having lost 264 troops as the highest number of fatalities or military casualties ever in that period and more than double the number of Americans killed in Iraq in summer of 2004 on war. The American will not allow the democrats to take charge and will not vote them in the coming elections. Losing in this war would also mean loss for the Americans and for the Interest of the U.S. government. The other states or nations would also see this as a big blow especially for U.S having to start the war, bringing the Saddam regime down but having to no effort to reconstruct Iraq being a Super power nation. The families who lost their men in the army will also be affected having sacrificed their member and the government not having to accomplish their task of restoring peace but withdrawing their troops where their men dedicated their strength. Lastly this timeline withdrawal is also greatly opposed as politicians also state that the Iraq troops should also be left to form their own government and defend their nation as early as possible because they have been trained and the U.S troops will have to leave at some point. The U.S troops are also blamed to cause this civil war and if withdraw immediately peace will prevail and Iraq government will have to take control and rebuild their nation. This timeline seems dangerous for this political climate due for election hence the troops should not be withdrawn until the Iraqi troop can be able to take full charge of their government. Reference David E Michael R. (2007): Chaos Overran Iraq Plan in 2006, New York Times. Daniel B. and Kenneth P. (2006):- Explosive Affinities. Cross-Border Consequences of Civil Strife, Berlin Journal. Dahl, R. (1998): On Democracy: New Haven: Yale University Press. McKay, D. (1997):- American Politics and Society: Oxford, UK: Blackwell Publishers. Tocqueville, A. Alfred A (1999): Democracy in America: New York Publishers.